The county of Finnmark stretches from West to East, all the best way within the North of the Scandinavian peninsula, and at its easternmost level, the place it borders Russia, is additional east than St. Petersburg.
Finnmark is geographically the most important of the Norwegian counties, and the space by street from its West to its East exceeds 500 km (315 miles). Topographically, the county is comparatively flat in comparison with the opposite components of Norway, and a lot of the county rises not more than 200 m above sea stage. However because the county is to date to the north, the panorama is open and huge, with just a bit low birch forest, and pine forest in some valleys.
Instantly east of Finnmark lies the Russian Kola peninsula, the place the house bases of the Russian Northern Fleet are situated. This is likely one of the few areas in northern Russia the place it’s attainable to determine harbours that may be saved ice-free in winter. North of Finnmark lies the Barents Sea, an space wealthy in fish, oil, and fuel. It’s the place the Russian Northern Fleet should sail to achieve the Atlantic. This makes the Barents Sea a strategically crucial space, not only for Norway, but in addition for NATO and certainly for Russia.
Norway’s coverage in the direction of Russia within the North has at all times been primarily based on Theodore Roosevelt’s outdated aphorism “Communicate softly and carry a giant stick.”
All through the years after the Second World Battle, Norway has labored to maintain the strain within the North as little as attainable. For one factor, as a self-imposed regulation, Norway has chosen to not host NATO bases on Norwegian soil, whereas additionally refraining from conducting main NATO workouts in or round Finnmark.
On the similar time, Norway has put a number of effort into protecting the very best diplomatic relations with Russia, and even throughout the “coldest” intervals throughout the Chilly Battle, Norwegian and Russian fishery authorities managed to keep up a civil dialogue and agree on the distribution of fishing quotas within the Northern Sea areas.
However although Norway has invested closely in protecting tensions low within the North, and for greater than 70 years has practised “talking softly” in the direction of the Soviet Union and later Russia, Norway has additionally “carried a giant stick” within the type of her NATO membership. All through the Chilly Battle, not least the Norwegian navy within the North was capable of stand quick and act firmly with out yielding to the far larger pressure of the Russian navy, within the data that behind the Norwegian naval ships loomed each the American and British navies.
Finnmark is Tough to Defend
From a navy standpoint, the Finnmark land space has at all times been tough to defend. When the Nazi German military was on the retreat within the autumn of 1944, the German navy leaders realized that Finnmark couldn’t be defended towards the Soviet military advancing from the east.
The German military then used the tactic of the “scorched earth” thus leaving Finnmark county abandoned. The inhabitants was evacuated from all cities, and all types of homes, wharfs, bridges, phone poles and roads have been both burnt down or destroyed.
The German military established a brand new defensive position within the fjord of Lyngen in North Troms, the so-called Lyngen Line. Right here, the terrain is totally completely different from that within the main components of Finnmark, with deep fjords and slender valleys that nearly break up Norway in two. A defensive position on this terrain could be far simpler to defend than a defensive position within the giant and open landscapes of Finnmark additional east. Because it occurred, nevertheless, the Soviet military selected to not advance into Norway, and the Second World Battle got here to an in depth with none combating on the Lyngen line.
However only some years after the Second World Battle ended, the world was heading into the Chilly Battle, the place the Soviet Union was the principle menace. It was not lengthy earlier than the Norwegian navy and political authorities started to concern an invasion of Norway, throughout the Russian-Norwegian border within the east of Finnmark. And in the identical method because the German officers just a few years earlier, the Norwegian navy judged that standing as much as the mighty Russian Military within the flat, open panorama of Finnmark would require far larger forces than what a small nation equivalent to Norway may muster. The Norwegian officers due to this fact got here to the identical conclusion because the German officers, that the Lyngen fjord is the primary space in the direction of the south of Finnmark the place the terrain actually favours the defence.
The Norwegian Military thus established its greatest garrisons in internal Troms, south of the Lyngen Fjord, and over the following 40 years, numerous fortified positions have been established within the steep mountain sides on the western facet of the fjord, going through the fjord and the steep mountain sides on the east facet. This was the place any Russian invasion pressure by way of Finnmark was to be stopped.
In Chilly Battle pondering, it was thought that an assault from the Soviet Union would contain an try to realize management of all or giant components of Western Europe, and in Norway this may imply that if the Soviet Military entered Finnmark, the target could be to proceed South alongside the Norwegian coast.
However after the top of the Chilly Battle, and with the latest Russian aggression, each in Chechnya, Georgia and now in Ukraine, it’s not a provided that Finnmark might be solely a small half of a bigger conquest plan. A number of navy analyses have pointed to the likelihood that Finnmark, and even solely components of Finnmark, could possibly be the precise navy goal for a Russian invasion. Moreover, the intention could possibly be to occupy a smaller a part of Finnmark, to not declare land, however to strain the Norwegian authorities into political concessions. For instance, the prerequisite for Russian withdrawal could possibly be a requirement to scale back Norwegian navy presence within the North, or the removing of intelligence installations equivalent to radars, or reinterpretation of the Svalbard Treaty to favour Russian pursuits within the archipelago, or a requirement that Russia ought to management a larger share of the oil, fuel, and fishery assets within the sea areas north of Finnmark.
The Lyngen Defile, a 70-year Headache for Norway’s Army
The problem for Norway is find out how to face such restricted Russian navy motion on Norwegian soil. The Norwegian military has its most essential combating forces within the county of Troms, South of the outdated Lyngen line, and the pure response in a war-like scenario could be to ship forces North to face a Russian pressure in Finnmark. Nonetheless, herein lies one of many large complications for Norwegian defence, the so-called Lyngen defile, which stretches from the Lyngen fjord to Alta, within the West of Finnmark. A defile is a slender gorge or passage within the terrain which, in a navy context, restricts the entry of forces. It’s exactly that impassable terrain North and East of the Lyngen fjord, which in its time would have been a slender passage for a Soviet Military attacking Norway, may also be a slender passage for any Norwegian forces that may come to Finnmark’s assist. There may be solely a single street going from the Lyngen fjord to Alta. In lots of locations the street is blasted out of sheer mountainsides, with a large number of bridges crossing rivers cascading down from the mountains. There are quite a few factors alongside street that may be simply destroyed with precision missiles, which might trigger the street to be closed for weeks. Driving offroad to bypass a damaged stretch of street is of course not an choice when the street sits precariously on a vertical mountainside.
What would after all be an choice, could be to relocate the Military from Troms to Finnmark. However this may pose its personal dangers within the case that the Norwegian forces are unable to withstand a Russian invasion pressure. Within the worst-case situation possible, the Norwegian forces must retreat to the Lyngen line, and if roads and bridges within the Lyngen defile have been then destroyed, such a retreat wouldn’t be attainable. On this worst case, Norway would lose its total military within the north.
“The Battle in Ukraine Involves Finnmark’s rescue”
Lately, there was political settlement to strengthen the land defence of Finnmark. Amongst different measures, a lightweight armour battalion has been fashioned, and the variety of border forces has been elevated. As well as, the Military of Finnmark has established in depth cooperation with the Dwelling Guard, the Navy and the Air Pressure, and this spring the Chief of Finnmark’s Land Defence said his opinion that with in the present day’s fight forces it could be viable to defend Finnmark till allied forces have been in place. That is nonetheless a controversial assertion, and each political authorities and navy management are in favour of a continued strengthening of the Military in Finnmark.
NATO Growth
In the meantime, and as a direct results of the Battle in Ukraine, Finland and Sweden are actually making use of for NATO membership. With Finland and Sweden in place as members of the alliance, the navy scenario for Finnmark may have modified utterly. The place the Lyngen defile was the one land street into Finnmark, there are actually 4 roads into Finnmark county which might be opened from the south, by way of Sweden and Finland. These roads wouldn’t have been obtainable to NATO forces so long as Sweden and Finland have been impartial. Along with the street community, each Sweden and Finland have a railway community that stretches northwards in the direction of the Norwegian border in Finnmark, and which gives the chance to move heavy materiel as much as Norway by prepare, utilizing the street community for under the final leg of the journey into Norway. The Swedish railway community within the North can also be linked to the so-called Iron Ore railway, which is used to move ore from the mines within the Swedish metropolis of Kiruna, throughout the border for cargo from the Norwegian metropolis of Narvik. The town has a well-developed, ice-free port which can be very vital for the touchdown of allied forces for additional transport with the Iron Ore railway into the North of Sweden, and additional north alongside the street into Finnmark. A 3rd choice is also to ship reinforcements to the northernmost ports within the Gulf of Bothnia. From right here, the remaining distance is about 400 km (250 miles) to Finnmark.
So, from being an remoted space with a border to Russia, and with the one entry alongside a really susceptible street, Finnmark might be far simpler to defend as quickly as Finnish and Swedish NATO membership is in place. And whereas it has been politically identified in Norway that Swedish and Finnish NATO membership will present a foundation for additional defence cooperation between the Scandinavian nations, the largest achieve for Norway lies in the truth that a number of attainable provide strains into Finnmark will open up the second Sweden and Finland turn into NATO members.
“Finland is an Island”
For the opposite Nordic international locations, the strategic scenario will change with NATO membership. Finnish navy leaders have for a few years described Finland’s strategic location as an “island”. To the East, Finland has an extended border with Russia, to the North a border with the NATO member Norway, and to the South and West lies the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia, on the opposite facet of which lies impartial Sweden. Which means that the one provide line from the West into Finland that doesn’t cross by way of impartial Sweden or any NATO international locations, is thru the Baltic Sea. That is due to this fact a susceptible provide line, particularly within the winter when ship visitors to Finland passes by way of slender waterways within the ice, opened by highly effective icebreaker vessels.
But when each Finland and Sweden have been to affix NATO, the scenario could be completely different. The Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia will successfully turn into an enclosed NATO sea physique surrounded by Finland’s NATO allies. Within the North, Finland may have a land border with each allied Sweden and Norway. The alternatives for sustaining provide strains from the West to Finland will due to this fact be radically completely different.
Will the Russian Navy be Transferring North?
Russia’s Baltic fleet was established by Tsar Peter the Nice, and throughout the Chilly Battle the Baltic fleet comprised about 350 vessels, 16 of which have been submarines. In the present day, the variety of vessels has been considerably lowered, and based on open sources contains roughly 42 floor vessels and one submarine, with bases in Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg. Even throughout NATO’s eastward growth, throughout which Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia becoming a member of NATO as members, the worth of Russia’s Baltic fleet was a lot lowered in comparison with its former energy.
With Finnish and Swedish NATO membership, the worth of the Baltic fleet might be additional diminished. The entry to St. Petersburg by way of the Gulf of Finland will lie between the NATO nation Finland within the North and the NATO nation Estonia within the South. The Kaliningrad enclave is in the present day bordered on land by NATO members, Lithuania and Poland, and shortly the remainder of the international locations across the Baltic Sea may also be NATO members.
The Russian Baltic fleet will due to this fact be nearly nugatory in a battle the place NATO is concerned, and several other analysts have said that Russia will due to this fact be more likely to make investments extra into strengthening its Northern Fleet, which has its bases on the Kola peninsula, East of Finnmark county.
Monitoring of the Barents Sea
Russia’s bases on the Kola Peninsula are additionally residence to the Northern Fleet’s nuclear submarines, and throughout the Chilly Battle Russia had greater than 200 submarines (nuclear and standard) stationed right here.
The present quantity is considerably lowered, comprising some 22 nuclear submarines and 10 standard submarines. Nonetheless, nuclear-powered submarines and new weapons for these submarines are among the many few areas the place the Russian Navy has been allotted assets to spend money on after the demise of the Soviet Union, and the Navy has obtained a number of new nuclear submarines in recent times.
Russian/Soviet submarines have at all times been a problem for NATO, and aside from their nuclear weapons, one may also see from a probably tough menace situation for NATO arising if the Northern Fleet’s submarines penetrate the Atlantic Ocean and handle to dam the ocean connection between Europe and the USA.
To get out into the Atlantic, the Russian submarines must cross by way of the Barents Sea, north of Finnmark. This sea space is comparatively shallow, with a mean depth of roughly 230 m (750 ft), and detecting submarines right here is kind of easy. Monitoring these sea areas and looking for submarines has been a precedence activity for Norwegian defence ever because the Second World Battle, and studies on Russian submarine actions within the Barents Sea have been amongst Norway’s most essential contributions to the NATO neighborhood. When Norway lately procured 5 new P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane, this was achieved exactly to spice up Norway’s submarine looking capabilities within the sea North of Finnmark.
Oil, Gasoline, Fish, and Sanctions
Because the Barents Sea seems to be changing into an ever extra essential space for the Russian navy, that is additionally an enviornment of ever-increasing financial significance. All through historical past, there have at all times been vital fish assets in these areas, and within the time after the Second World Battle, the Norwegian and Russian authorities have at all times managed to cooperate on fishing quotas and administration of the fishery assets.
Nonetheless, the sanctions which have lately been invoked towards Russia create issues and new challenges for the Norwegian fishing trade and the Norwegian authorities. Norway has toed the EU line and launched the identical sanctions package deal towards Russia as different EU international locations. The sanctions imply that, amongst different issues, that Russian vessels aren’t allowed to enter port in EU international locations or in Norway. But the Norwegian authorities has made one exception, whereby Russian fishing vessels can go to Norwegian ports to ship fish. This exception has met with large criticism from the political opposition, who claimed that Russian gross sales of fish in Norway go “on to finance the battle towards Ukraine”. Nonetheless, the Norwegian authorities defends Norwegian coverage by pointing to its obligation to cooperate with Russia within the Barents Sea in addition to the necessity to handle widespread fish assets within the North. There may be additionally little question that sourcing uncooked materials for the Norwegian fish processing corporations alongside the coast is a crucial consideration for the federal government. The same scenario can also turn into related relating to oil and fuel assets within the North.
In 2011, after greater than 40 years of negotiations, the so-called dividing line settlement was concluded, an settlement that clarifies the border relationship between Norway and Russia within the Barents Sea. Nonetheless, the settlement additionally incorporates provisions for cooperation on the exploitation of attainable trans-border petroleum assets underneath these sea areas. As of in the present day, no discoveries of viable oil or fuel deposits have been made in these areas. But when main oil or fuel fields have been to be found within the areas adjoining the dividing line within the East, it could entail vital challenges with respect to the dividing line settlement provisions on cooperation with Russia, and the sanctions package deal that the EU and Norway have adopted. On the similar time, the EU is pressuring Norway to extend Norway’s fuel provides to Europe when Russia shut down its fuel pipelines.
Up till the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Norway provided roughly 21 per cent of the EU’s fuel imports. Russia provided round 43 per cent, and though Norway has elevated its manufacturing considerably throughout the yr, it goes with out saying that Norway is not going to come near changing the lack of Russian fuel within the brief time period. In the long term, Norway will most likely be capable of contribute extra to creating the EU’s fuel provide much less depending on Russia, however this can name for brand spanking new fuel fields to be found and developed within the Norwegian sea areas. On this respect, the Barents Sea will once more be a key space. Norwegian authorities estimate that greater than 50 per cent of Norway’s as but undiscovered fuel and oil assets lie simply within the Barents Sea. If this seems to be appropriate, there’s a future danger that enormous components of the EU will turn into depending on fuel from a sea space that lies proper up towards Russia’s border, and which is the “delivery route” out into the Atlantic for the Russian Northern Fleet.
In the present day, one can in the present day solely speculate about what challenges this can entail, each relating to creating the petroleum enterprise in these areas, or securing, and at worst defending, the availability of fuel to Europe from the Barents Sea. In any case, the event of those hydrocarbon assets to the extent that they’ll cowl most of Europe’s fuel wants, will lie a few years sooner or later.
